Date: 25 June 2025
Following US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, Iran retaliated by firing missiles at a US military base in Qatar. Despite expectations that such escalation would spike oil prices, Brent crude dropped to around $68/barrel. Traders believe Iran deliberately avoided targeting the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, signalling restraint and reducing fears of disrupted supply. Later, US President Trump announced a tentative Israel-Iran ceasefire, calming markets further. Previously, Brent had surged to $81 amid tension. With the ceasefire tone and no threat to chokepoints, war risk premiums were removed, and global energy markets eased. Analysts noted that symbolic retaliation without supply disruption is now a key factor in market stability during geopolitics.